Agronometrics in Charts: Price Alerts for Hass Avocados in the US marking the beginning of week 39
By
| 4 October 2022
In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, Valeria Concha studies the state of the US avocado market. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.
Fairly active trading for Hass avocados, in addition to the promotions carried out, led to a higher stock rotation causing prices to readjust compared to the previous week, as recorded in our “Price Alerts” on Monday 26 September. The average daily prices of Hass Avocados in the US have risen by 13.72%, marking a $3.16 increase on the last report 3 days ago, from $23.02 to $26.18.
Between the end of week 38 and the beginning of this week, the sizes that showed the greatest increase in their average prices were 32’s, 36’s and 40s, rising by +$7.62, +$5.62 and +6.87 per package, respectively, while the 70’s and 84’s sizes decreased by $3 per package.
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
The volumes of Mexican Hass avocado in the US market have been increasing. Between weeks 27 and 38, the supply in the US market accumulated just over 160 thousand tons, a volume similar compared to the previous season.
According to Mexican Hass Avocado Importer Association (MHAIA), for the 2022-2023 season, an increase in shipments of 27% is projected compared to the previous season, a volume similar to 2021. For context the Mexican 2021-2022 season shipped unusually low volumes, way below trend.
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
The association’s Crop Report also indicated a decrease in weekly shipments of Mexican avocado from Michoacan and Jalisco to the USA during week 37. The reason for this is national holidays in Mexico with volumes resuming the normal rate during week 38.
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
With the increasing Mexican supplies, the average daily prices have been on a downward trend, through week 38. Prices in week 32 were below those registered in 2021, with differences of -$6 to -$30 per package.
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
With volumes similar to 2021, and pricing considerably lower than the same year, it appears like a market correction is in the works. Considering an expected growth in demand for avocados it would be reasonable to expect volumes similar to 2021 should fetch higher pricing than that same year.
In our ‘In Charts’ series, we work to tell some of the stories that are moving the industry. Feel free to take a look at the other articles by clicking here.
All pricing for domestic US produce represents the spot market at Shipping Point (i.e. packing house/climate controlled warehouse, etc.). For imported fruit, the pricing data represents the spot market at Port of Entry.
You can keep track of the markets daily through Agronometrics, a data visualization tool built to help the industry make sense of the huge amounts of data that professionals need to access to make informed decisions.If you found the information and the charts from this article useful, feel free to visit us at www.agronometrics.com where you can easily access these same graphs, or explore the other 21 commodities we currently track.
Written by: Valeria Concha
