Agronometrics Shorts: Avocado Prices Slip By 22% as Mexico Transitions to its ‘Flor Loca Crop’

By Agronometrics | 24 August 2023

Peru and Mexico have encountered smaller avocado sizes through the course of the current season. “We are seeing the scarcity of larger fruit out of Mexico at the moment,”  says David Fausset of Westfalia Fruit USA. With both the California and Peruvian seasons winding down, Fausset anticipates shipments from Mexico to increase this month and into September. This period corresponds to Mexico’s “Flor Loca” crop, traditionally recognized as their smallest size crop. This transition towards smaller-sized avocados has prompted a notable 22% reduction in prices within the US market. Mexico’s forthcoming crop, referred to as “aventajada,” is scheduled to commence in September. In a strategic move to prevent an excess influx of smaller-sized avocados into the US market, Mexico is employing a demand-oriented harvest approach. The current deficit in larger-sized fruit has induced elevated pricing trends for avocados classified as 48’s and larger. Fausset underscores that this premium attributed to larger fruit creates new opportunities for promoting smaller fruit varieties, ranging from bag programs to other such promotional initiatives. In the wake of the recent Tropical Storm Hilary over the past weekend, Mexican avocado producers have indicated an anticipated volume reduction of approximately 20%-30% due to the impact of strong winds on the trees. This phenomenon is likely to catalyze price escalations in the forthcoming weeks.

avocado prices by size a 1

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

avocado volumes by origi 8

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Written by: Sarah Ilyas

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