Chilean table grape export forecast revised downward
From
| 25 October 2022
Overview of table grapes from Chile in the U.S. market, complemented by charts from Agronometrics. Original published on October 25, 2022.
Chile’s ASOEX Table Grape Committee delivered its second estimate for the 2022-23 fresh grape export season. Shipments are estimated at a total aggregate volume of 69 million boxes (8.2 kg), which would mark an 8% drop year-on-year.
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
Earlier in October, the Committee had forecast a 5% year-on-year drop.
Iván Marambio, president of ASOEX, said that “although the new forecast reflects a 3% drop, it is important to note that this second estimate shows an increase in exports of new varieties (…) in relation to shipments of traditional and Red Globe varieties. This shows the varietal replacement that is taking place in the industry, and which partly explains this decrease in total shipments”.
“The important thing here is that our table grape industry has prepared to have a better season than last year, improve its competitiveness and offer the grapes that the market and consumers expect in terms of quality, flavor, safety and variety,” Marambio said.
Shipments of new varieties are expected to reach 36.7 million boxes, followed by traditional varieties with 20.3 million and Red Globe with 11.5 million boxes. These last two varieties reflect a drop compared to the first forecast published by the association. The previous report forecasted more than 850,000 boxes for the Red Globe variety, and more than 1.8 million boxes for traditional varieties.
White varieties have shown an increase, in contrast to the first forecast, with 24 million boxes. Other varieties are down compared to the previous forecast. Red varieties are expected to reach 26.7 million boxes, 6.5 million boxes for black varieties
Thompson Seedless and Sugraone stand out among the new white varieties. On the other hand, new red varieties include: Crimson Seedless, Flame Seedless and Perlon. As for new black grapes, Autumn Royal and Black Seedless stand out.
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
Markets
Regarding expected shipments by market, Ignacio Caballero, coordinator of the ASOEX Table Grape Committee, said: “We will experience a drop in shipments to all our destination markets compared to last season. For the United States we are anticipating a slight drop of 1%, 9% for Asia and Europe will see a decrease of 27%”.
The executive added that the United States will continue to be the main destination for Chilean table grapes, a market that will receive 38.62 million boxes. It is followed by Asia with 15 million boxes, Europe with 9 million boxes, and the remaining 6 million boxes will be distributed among the other destination markets.
Finally, Caballero recalled that the “Committee’s plan is to make four estimates of the aggregate volume of table grape exports this season, with the next two forecasts scheduled for the end of November and December. It is important to keep in mind that the estimates will fluctuate based on several variables, especially external ones, such as weather conditions, freight, availability of workers and other global logistic variables”.
The News in Charts is a collection of stories from the industry complemented by charts from Agronometrics to help better tell their story.
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