In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, Valeria Concha studies the initial forecast for California Navle production. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change
According to the latest Crop Production report published by the National Agricultural Statistics Service of the USDA, the initial forecast for Navel orange production in California for the 2022-2023 season is at 1.52 million tons (38.0 million boxes), up 19 percent from last season. This forecast is based on an objective measurement survey conducted in California’s Central Valley from mid-June to the beginning of September. This survey indicated that fruit set was up 47 percent from last year, but the average fruit size was down 2 percent from last year. Harvests this season are expected to kick off in October, according to the survey.
Currently, there are still California Valencia oranges on the US market from the 2021/2022 season, which is coming to an end. The volumes are complemented by imports, which currently mostly come from Chile and South Africa For its part, Chile is in the final stage of its season.
Given the transition to local supply, orange prices have slightly improved in recent weeks. This week, the average daily pricing for oranges in the US has risen by 4% since week 35, from 1.50 to $1.56. Compared to week 37 of the previous season, the price was roughly 22.8% higher.
The largest increase in the daily average price occurred in the 40s size which saw prices rising from $1.67 in week 35 to $1.80 in week 37.
Written by: Valeria Concha