Agronometrics in Charts: Initial forecast for California Navel orange production Up 19% from last season

By Agronometrics | 23 September 2022

In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, Valeria Concha studies the initial forecast for California Navle production. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change

According to the latest Crop Production report published  by the National Agricultural Statistics Service of the USDA, the initial forecast for  Navel orange production in California for the 2022-2023 season is at 1.52 million tons (38.0 million boxes), up 19 percent from last season. This forecast is based on an objective measurement survey conducted in California’s Central Valley from mid-June to the beginning of September. This survey indicated that fruit set was up 47 percent from last year, but the average fruit size was down 2 percent from last year. Harvests this season are expected to kick off  in October, according to the survey.

Currently, there are still California Valencia oranges on the US market from the 2021/2022 season, which is coming to an end. The  volumes are complemented by imports, which currently mostly come from Chile and South Africa For its part, Chile is in the final stage of its season.

orange volumes by origin

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

Given the transition to local supply, orange prices have slightly improved in recent weeks. This week, the average daily pricing for oranges in the US has risen by 4% since week 35, from 1.50 to $1.56. Compared to week 37 of the previous season, the price was roughly 22.8% higher.

orange prices by history

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

The largest increase in the daily average price occurred in the 40s size  which saw prices rising from $1.67 in week 35 to $1.80 in week 37.

orange prices by size us

Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)

In our ‘In Charts’ series, we work to tell some of the stories that are moving the industry. Feel free to take a look at the other articles by clicking here

All pricing for domestic US produce represents the spot market at Shipping Point (i.e. packing house/climate controlled warehouse, etc.). For imported fruit, the pricing data represents the spot market at Port of Entry.

You can keep track of the markets daily through Agronometrics, a data visualization tool built to help the industry make sense of the huge amounts of data that professionals need to access to make informed decisions.If you found the information and the charts from this article useful, feel free to visit us at where you can easily access these same graphs, or explore the other 21 commodities we currently track.

Written by: Valeria Concha

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