Agronometrics in Charts: Pear Yields in the Pacific Northwest on Par With Five-Year Average
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| 31 October 2022
In this installment of the ‘Agronometrics In Charts’ series, Sarah Ilyas studies the progress of the pear season in the Pacific Northwest. Each week the series looks at a different horticultural commodity, focusing on a specific origin or topic visualizing the market factors that are driving change.
In early September, Pear Bureau Northwest (PBNW) announced the first official estimate of the 2022-23 fresh pear crop for Washington and Oregon. The industry’s fresh pear estimate is 16.2 million standard box equivalents. Despite a rainy spring, a crop on par with the five-year average is expected, owing to a lengthy stretch of dry and warm weather. The organic pear estimate is expected to come in at 1,823,000 million standard boxes equivalents, or 11% of the total projected Northwest crop. Mexico, Canada and the Central American region are the key export markets.
Preliminary reports suggest strong crop quality, slightly lower than average fruit size and a favorable crop profile. Growth, however, is behind 10 – 14 days due to the prolonged cool and wet spring. Input costs have tumbled but remain significantly above pre-pandemic levels, continuing to pressure margins.
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
Gains in Anjou volumes this season are likely to offset declines in Bosc, Green Bartlett and Comice varieties. California has, for the most part, concluded its shipments and there is little risk of overlap with the Northwest. Shipments to Canada and Mexico, which collectively made up 90% of exports during the 2021-22 season, are off to a strong start. While U.S. pears are not expected to experience significant price increases, fruit from other countries may become more cost competitive.
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
Source: USDA Market News via Agronometrics.
(Agronometrics users can view this chart with live updates here)
Demand for pears is projected to remain stable through the 2022-2023 season. Prices are expected to be favorable and crop quality and size profile are projected to be above par. The industry continues to expand conditioning programs which employ ethylene to improve the texture and flavor of pears prior to market deliveries. Spikes in inflation present a challenge to the industry since people are likely to choose less expensive varieties and/or alternative fruits as a result. Despite being viewed as a staple food item, pears are not immune to the throes of inflation.
In our ‘In Charts’ series, we work to tell some of the stories that are moving the industry. Feel free to take a look at the other articles by clicking here.
All pricing for domestic US produce represents the spot market at Shipping Point (i.e. packing house/climate controlled warehouse, etc.). For imported fruit, the pricing data represents the spot market at Port of Entry.
You can keep track of the markets daily through Agronometrics, a data visualization tool built to help the industry make sense of the huge amounts of data that professionals need to access to make informed decisions.If you found the information and the charts from this article useful, feel free to visit us at www.agronometrics.com where you can easily access these same graphs, or explore the other 21 commodities we currently track.
Written by: Sarah Ilyas
